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7
May
2008
1- Russia, US sign civilian nuclear pact
2- US-Iran showdown in Gulf
3- Medvedev replaces Putin today
4- Magnitude of human tragedy in Myanmar
5- North Carolina gives Obama a victory
6- With Medvedev, Russia looks like it's back
7- Pentagon Targeted Iran for Regime Change after 9/11
  8- President calls for expansion of cultural ties with Algeria

Russia, US sign civilian nuclear pact
May 7, 2008

 MOSCOW, May 6: Russia and the United States signed a nuclear pact on Tuesday allowing the world?s two biggest atomic powers to boost their uranium trade and work on new ways to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons.
 The civilian deal will open up the booming US nuclear market and Russia?s vast uranium fields to firms from both countries by removing Cold War restrictions that prevented bilateral trade potentially worth billions of dollars.
 US ambassador to Russia, William Burns, signed the deal with the head of Russia?s state nuclear corporation, Sergei Kiriyenko, on the last full day of Vladimir Putin?s presidency.
 The United States and Russia were once nuclear rivals ? we are today nuclear partners,? said Burns.
 At the 2006 Group of Eight summit in St Petersburg, President George Bush and Putin ordered ministers to reach a deal but it has faced opposition from some U.S. congressmen because of Russia?s nuclear cooperation with Iran. A 123 agreement, so-called because it falls under section 123 of the US Atomic Energy Act, is required before countries can cooperate on nuclear materials.
 It is critical to the Global Nuclear Energy Partnership, or GNEP, which the United States and Russia have discussed for more than a year as a way to expand peaceful nuclear energy development and mitigate proliferation risks.
 What this agreement allows us to do is to implement some very creative ideas that both Russia and the United States have put forward to deal with the growing challenge of proliferation of nuclear weapons,? Burns said.
 He said the deal would allow Washington and Moscow to move forward on proposals for international nuclear fuel centres, which would sell developing countries access to nuclear energy but remove the need for their own enrichment programmes.
 Russia and the United States control the largest arsenals of nuclear weapons in the world and both have ambitious plans to build hundreds of new reactors for power production.
 Some US politicians have said nuclear cooperation with Russia should be shunned because Russia is helping Iran build an atomic power station, but the Bush administration is keen to have the pact approved this year.
 Once the agreement is signed Bush will have to send it to Congress, which has 90 days to act. If Congress does nothing, the agreement goes into effect. If lawmakers want to block it, they must pass a resolution of disapproval. Russia?s parliament, controlled by Putin?s party, must also ratify the treaty.
 Russia, one of the world?s biggest sellers of enrichment services, has been trying to break into the nuclear markets of the United States and European Union.
 The signing of this agreement opens a gigantic field of opportunities for the economic cooperation in the large and growing businesses linked to the civilian use of nuclear energy,? Kiriyenko said after the signing.
 Tuesday?s agreement simplifies life for companies in both countries and allows them to strike deals on trade in nuclear materials directly among themselves. Putin has reformed Russia?s nuclear sector to boost competition and open it up to atomic firms such as Japan?s Toshiba Corp, which owns US-based Westinghouse Electric.
 Reuters
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US-Iran showdown in Gulf
May 7, 2008

 THE risks of an accidental showdown between the US Navy and Iran in the Gulf have only increased now that the Pentagon has deployed a second aircraft carrier battle group to the region and replaced Admiral Fallon with General Petraeus as the new commander of CENTCOM.
 Defence Secretary Gates pointedly termed the deployment a "reminder" for the Iranian regime, a reference to the vicious, undeclared US naval attack in the Gulf that forced Ayatollah Khomeini, in his own words, to swallow "the poisoned chalice" and accept a negotiated ceasefire with Baathist Iraq in 1988.
 Both the US and Iranian military high command acknowledge the primacy of naval power in the event of war in the Gulf. The American fleet protects the tanker sea-lanes of the Gulf, through which almost half of the world's oil tanker traffic passes. Last week's incident only highlighted the new rules of engagement sanctioned by the Pentagon against Iranian vessels.
 Every day, 16 million barrels of oil laden in the bowels of VLCC tankers navigate the narrow two-mile wide outbound shipping lane of the Straits of Hormuz, the world's most sensitive energy chokepoint. Iran has stationed Chinese Silkworm missile batteries in the islands and coastal towns near the straits. It also has enough submarines, fighter bombers, a flotilla of speedboats, frigates and guided missile cruisers and martyrdom obsessed Basij militiaman to close down the Straits of Hormuz, possibly by sinking a couple of oil supertankers in it.
 A blockade of the Straits of Hormuz is, of course, the quintessential Armageddon scenario for the international crude oil market. However, even the merest hint of a shooting war in the Gulf, could have a catastrophic impact on shipping and insurance rates.
 Gate's "reminder" referred to Operation Praying Mantis, the bloodiest air sea battle waged by the US Navy against Khomeini's oil platforms and frigates since World War II. Pentagon strategists concluded that "shock and awe" in the Gulf was successful because it forced Khomeini to sue for peace, a lesson it reapplied with a vengeance in the opening moments of Desert Storm.
 However, not even the Star Wars technological infrastructure of the Pentagon can prevent an undersea mine explosion or a suicide bomb attack. The naval units of the Pasdaran, who did not hesitate to attack US warships despite suicidal odds in 1988, use "swarming" as a strategic doctrine. This means Iranian speedboats buzz US naval vessels at high speeds, as happened last week. The US Navy has learnt the naval lessons of the Al Qaeda's attack on the USS Cole and the French tanker Limburg all too well.
 If Iran "swarms" US Navy warships or merchant marine ships, the risk of a tragic miscalculation soars, as happened when the USS Vincennes shot down a civilian Iran Air Airbus headed from Bandar Abbas to Dubai after its IFF misidentified it as a hostile warplane while it was being "swarmed" by Pasdaran gunboats. Iran's anti- ship capabilities are also perfectly capable of lethal damage to US naval warships and, in the event of war, the Pasdaran missile units will do their best to target the American aircraft carriers in the Gulf.
 As the Imperial Japanese Navy proved in the Pacific war, suicide attacks on the high seas can exact a painful toll. The fate of the HMS Sheffield, sunk by an Argentine Exocet missile, in the Falkland war, should restrain the most belligerent Pentagon naval strategists.
 It is not unnatural that paranoia suffuses Iran's theocratic regime in its international relations. With an annual defence budget of only $5 billion, one hundredth the military expenditure of the Pentagon, Iran is surrounded by a constellation of states which host US bases or are sworn allies of Washington. These include Turkey, Pakistan, Afghanistan, the Gulf monarchies, Uzbekistan, Jordan, Egypt and Azerbaijan. Iran's sole Arab ally, Baathist Syria, has been ostracised in the Arab diplomatic order, expelled from Lebanon, forced to engage in secret negotiations with Israel via Turkish diplomatic intermediaries for the return of the Golan Heights, under Zionist occupation since the June 1967 Six Day War.
 Hezbollah's missile deterrent against an Israeli assault has been neutralised with the deployment of 13500 UNIFIL troops in South Lebanon, including contingents of French, Spanish and Italian combat troops. There is increasing evidence that the CIA has financed sabotage attacks by Iran's ethnic Baluchi, Ahwazi, Kurdish and Arab minorities against the Persian regime's provincial bastions of power.
 The Bush White House, to use the laudable but anachronistic metaphor of former Iranian president Khatami, is definitely not engaged in "a dialogue of civilisations" with the Khomeini — Ahmadinejad regime. With the sort of pathological Great Satan-Axis of Evil mutual demonology, it is significant that Iran and the US have not had diplomatic relations ever since the Shah lost his Peacock Throne nearly three decades ago. In such a toxic geo-political climate, the risks of miscalculation escalate.
 It is ominous that the US has raised the decibel count in its attempt to blame Iran for the death toll on its troops in Iraq, now that Al Qaeda has been largely vanquished in the so-called Sunni triangle. The Pentagon and White House media briefers allege that Iran's spymasters have trained Iraqi Shia proxies to smuggle improvised roadside bombs and rocket attack on Baghdad's Green Zone, training conducted in secret camps of the Al Quds Force of the Pasdaran.
 The Pasdaran, Iran's Revolutionary Guards, are the power base of President Ahmadinijad, the shock troops of the Ayatollah regime, the only foreign military organisation in the world to be branded as terrorists by the Bush White House. Iran has, in essence, engaged in a proxy war with the United States using surrogates, exactly as it did in the 1980's when Hezbollah suicide bombers massacred 241 Marines at their West Beirut barracks, destroyed the US Embassy and kidnapped several high profile US hostages, including the CIA station chief in Lebanon.
 General Petraeus, Admiral Mullen (Chairman of the Joint Chiefs), Secretary Gates, and Ambassador Crocker have all testified that Iran trained and armed the Shia militias who attacked the Iraqi government troops in Basra. Senior Pentagon aides and agency spooks have hinted to the media that an air assault on Iran, launched from US naval ships in the Gulf, will include Pasdaran weapons caches, safe houses, training camps and combat bases. The US dossier that detailed a North Korean-built nuclear reactor in Syria was aimed at Iran. As in 1988, the risk of a naval showdown in the Gulf is all too real.
 Matein Khalid is a Dubai-based investment banker and commentator
Worldnews
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Medvedev replaces Putin today
May 7, 2008

 Dmitry Medvedev will take the reins of Russian presidency from Vladimir Putin today with promises to fight corruption and inflation in partnership with a predecessor in the post of prime minister.
 As Medvedev takes the oath of office before 2,500 Kremlin guests, Putin will become the first post-Soviet president to serve out his term.
 Medvedev, a 42-year-old St. Petersburg lawyer, will assume control of the world's largest country in its 10th year of energy-fueled economic growth.
 The constitution requires government ministers to resign immediately after the inauguration, clearing the way for Medvedev to confirm Putin's choices for a new cabinet.
 The State Duma, or lower house of parliament, meets tomorrow to endorse Putin's nomination to his new post.
 Medvedev served as first deputy prime minister under Putin since 2005 and has yet to give up the post of chairman of OAO Gazprom SA, Russia's natural-gas export monopoly.
 Putin has been president for two four-year terms, after succeeding Russia's first post-Soviet president, Boris Yeltsin, who resigned on Dec. 31, 1999.
 The United Russia party, which Putin created, has little in the way of ideology beyond backing Putin and making sure the country remains a global power.
 Russia, the world's biggest energy exporter, has benefited from record oil and gas prices, with the economy growing at an average 7 percent a year in the past decade.
 That growth has pushed up wages, the ruble and inflation, making Russia less competitive.
 Medvedev has vowed to curb inflation, without detailing how.
 On corruption, Medvedev has said Russia's problem pervades government on "an enormous scale".
 Berlin-based watchdog Transparency International last year said businesspeople and analysts perceive Russia as being among the most corrupt countries of 180 it studied, with a ranking of 143.
 In November 2006, Deputy Prosecutor-General Alexander Buksman estimated that corrupt Russian officials take about $240 billion in bribes a year.
 The 40-minute inauguration ceremony will start about 11:40 a.m.
 with Putin reviewing the Presidential Guard in the Kremlin's Cathedral Square.
 Before Medvedev takes the oath, a military escort will bring the Russian flag and the presidential flag, as well as a copy of the constitution and the presidential seal, to the podium in the Great Kremlin Palace, where the inauguration will take place.
 Duma speaker Boris Gryzlov will be at the podium when Medvedev is sworn in, as will Sergei Mironov, speaker of the upper house, the Federation Council.
 Valery Zorkin, chairman of Russia's Constitutional Court, will administer the oath of office after Putin makes a short speech and hands the presidential seal to Medvedev.
 The ceremony will close with Medvedev reviewing the guard in his first act as Russia's third president.
IRNA
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Magnitude of human tragedy in Myanmar
May 7, 2008

 The Myanmar government put its tally of deaths since Cyclone Nargis struck early Saturday at 22,500 and said 41,000 people were missing.
 Such early estimates often prove inaccurate, and the wide path of this cyclone, which destroyed homes across the fertile Irrawaddy Delta and into Yangon, the nation's main city, left a large area of destruction, complicating rescue efforts and damage assessments for days or weeks to come.
 While Myanmar, formerly Burma, has so far accepted only a trickle of aid, the country's information minister, Kyaw Hsan, said Tuesday that the country would be seeking assistance "from at home and abroad."
Maung Maung Swe, minister for relief and resettlement, said the cyclone's deadliest aspect was the surge of water it forced inland from the Andaman Sea.
 "More deaths were caused by the tidal wave than the storm itself," he said, in the first official description of the destruction.
 "The wave was up to 12 feet high and it swept away and inundated half the houses in low-lying villages. They did not have anywhere to flee."
IRNA
 

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North Carolina gives Obama a victory
May 7, 2008

 Democratic contender Barack Obama won the North Carolina Democratic primary, ending a big-state losing streak going back more than a month.
 In Indiana, Hillary Rodham Clinton led in early returns, but most news organizations did not immediately project a winner there.
 Obama congratulated Clinton on what he called her apparent victory in Indiana -- even though CBS was alone among major news organizations in calling that state's primary at that point.
 But he went on to tell the crowd of about 3,000 that "tonight we stand less than 200 delegates away from securing the Democratic nomination for president of the United States."
He described the North Carolina win as a victory "in a big state, in a swing state, in a state where we will compete to win if I am the Democratic nominee for president of the United States."
IRNA
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With Medvedev, Russia looks like it's back
May 7, 2008

 PRESIDENT VLADIMIR PUTIN of Russia moves out of the president's office today and into the prime minister's job. Even Russians wonder how much authority and power Putin will yield to Dmitry Medvedev, the successor he appointed. Medvedev, who is 12 years younger than Putin, has served as his subordinate since Putin appointed him as his assistant in the St. Petersburg governor's office in the early 1990s. This is not a father and son relationship, but there is no doubt as to who follows in whose footsteps.
 Close as they have been, the two men are different and come from quite different backgrounds. Putin not only comes out of the ranks as a former lieutenant colonel in the KGB, but his grandfather and to some extent his father were also closely involved in KGB-type activities. This is reflected in Putin's vocabulary, which is often colored with criminal argot that by its crudeness can sometimes be embarrassing for a world leader.
 Medvedev comes from what many Russians would consider as the intelligentsia. His father was a physics professor at the Leningrad Technical Institute and his mother was a high school teacher of Russian language and literature. Initially at least, Medvedev will need Putin, if for no other reason than to protect his flank from being undermined by some of the siloviki (law and order types) who have been brought to Moscow and into the Kremlin by Putin. They think of themselves as the rightful heirs who should have been selected to take over Putin's office and resent Medvedev's selection.
 While Putin used these siloviki to push out and replace most of the original oligarchs (including Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the former head of the YUKOS Oil Co. who is now serving an eight-year prison term in Siberia), they now have settled in and taken over many of the companies that were privatized in the 1990s. So now these new oligarchs have not only money but KGB and insider connections. This will make it difficult for Medvedev to push them out and replace them with his own supporters as Putin was able to do when the oligarchs only had money to protect their holdings.
 After a time however, Medvedev is almost sure to come to believe he should be his own man: After all, he is the president and it is the president who hires and fires the prime minister. And like most sons who ultimately decide their fathers lack the ability and the knowledge to deal with the new times, by his second term, if not sooner, Medvedev will probably conclude that he no longer needs the older man's guidance.
 More than that, although both men are trained as lawyers, they espouse different values. Putin came into office calling for the "dictatorship of the law" with the emphasis on dictatorship. For Putin, "the collapse of the Soviet Union" was "the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century." In Medvedev's view, "freedom is better than non-freedom" and the law should prevail over unrestrained executive power.
 Medvedev has also criticized the practice that allows Kremlin and state officials to hold positions on state company and corporation boards. He wants more independent directors. Given that Medvedev himself served both as chairman of the board of Gazprom and variously as chief of the Kremlin administration and first deputy prime minister, it is not as if he followed his own recommendations.
 The expectation is that Medvedev will shortly yield his post as Gazprom's board chairman to Viktor Zubkov, outgoing prime minister. Still, Medvedev's retention of the post until the last minute suggests how lucrative such an appointment can be and how he will probably continue to treat Gazprom as an instrument of the state. In that sense there will not be much change from the way Putin also used Gazprom as a "national champion" on behalf of official Russian government interests. As long as energy prices remain high, this presents continuing opportunities for Russia to regain some, if not all of the superpower status it lost after the collapse of the Soviet Union. But it also presents new challenges for the west and the United States.
 It may be premature to say "Russia is back" but Putin has certainly moved it in that direction and either with or without Putin's help - unless Medvedev stumbles badly -he will use Gazprom and the country's petroleum companies much as Putin did to advance Russian national interests. That may be good for Russia, but not necessarily for the rest of us.
Boston
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Pentagon Targeted Iran for Regime Change after 9/11
May 7, 2008

 WASHINGTON - Three weeks after the 9/11 terror attacks, former U.S. Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld established an official military objective of not only removing the Saddam Hussein regime by force but overturning the regime in Iran, as well as in Syria and four other countries in the Middle East, according to a document quoted extensively in then Undersecretary of Defence for Policy Douglas Feith’s recently published account of the Iraq war decisions
Feith’s account further indicates that this aggressive aim of remaking the map of the Middle East by military force and the threat of force was supported explicitly by the country’s top military leaders.
 Feith’s book, ‘War and Decision’, released last month, provides excerpts of the paper Rumsfeld sent to President George W. Bush on Sep. 30, 2001 calling for the administration to focus not on taking down Osama bin Laden’s al Qaeda network but on the aim of establishing ‘new regimes’ in a series of states by ‘aiding local peoples to rid themselves of terrorists and to free themselves of regimes that support terrorism.’
 In quoting from that document, Feith deletes the names of all of the states to be targeted except Afghanistan, inserting the phrase ’some other states’ in brackets. In a facsimile of a page from a related Pentagon ‘campaign plan’ document, the Taliban and Saddam Hussein regimes are listed as ’state regimes’ against which ‘plans and operations’ might be mounted, but the names of four other states are blacked out ‘for security reasons’.
 Gen. Wesley Clark, who commanded the NATO bombing campaign in the Kosovo War, recalls in his 2003 book ‘Winning Modern Wars’ being told by a friend in the Pentagon in November 2001 that the list of states that Rumsfeld and Deputy Secretary of Defence Paul Wolfowitz wanted to take down included Iraq, Iran, Syria, Libya, Sudan and Somalia.
 Clark writes that the list also included Lebanon. Feith reveals that Rumsfeld’s paper called for getting ‘Syria out of Lebanon’ as a major goal of U.S. policy.
 When this writer asked Feith after a recent public appearance which countries’ names were deleted from the documents, he cited security reasons for the deletion. But when he was asked which of the six regimes on the Clark list were included in the Rumsfeld paper, he replied, ‘All of them.’
 Rumsfeld’s paper was given to the White House only two weeks after Bush had approved a U.S. military operation in Afghanistan directed against bin Laden and the Taliban regime. Despite that decision, Rumsfeld’s proposal called explicitly for postponing indefinitely U.S. airstrikes and the use of ground forces in support of the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance in order to try to catch bin Laden.
 Instead the Rumsfeld paper argued that the U.S. should target states which had supported anti-Israel forces such as Hezbollah and Hamas. It urged that the United States ‘[c]apitalize on our strong suit, which is not finding a few hundred terrorists in caves in Afghanistan, but in the vastness of our military and humanitarian resources, which can strengthen the opposition forces in terrorist-supporting states.’
 Feith describes the policy outlined in the paper as consisting of ‘military action against some of the state sponsors and pressure — short of war — against others’.
 The Rumsfeld plan represented a Pentagon consensus that included the uniformed military leadership, according to Feith’s account. He writes that the process of drafting the paper involved consultations with the outgoing Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Henry Shelton and the incoming Chairman Gen. Richard Myers.
 Myers helped revise the initial draft, Feith writes, and Gen. John P. Abizaid, who was then director of the Joint Staff, enthusiastically endorsed it in draft form. ‘This is an exceptionally important memo,’ wrote Abizaid, ‘which gives clear strategic vision.’ In a message quoted by Feith, Abizaid recommended to Myers that ‘you support this approach’.
 After the invasion and occupation of Iraq in 2003, Abizaid was promoted to become chief of CENTCOM, with military responsibility for the entire Middle East.
 Neither Myers nor Abizaid, both of whom are now retired from the military, responded to e-mails asking for their comments on Feith’s account of their role in the process of producing the Rumsfeld strategy.
 Rumsfeld’s aides had also drafted a second version of the paper, as instructions to all military commanders in the development of ‘campaign plans against terrorism’.
 That instructions document was a joint effort by Feith’s office and by the Strategic Plans and Policy directorate of Abizaid’s Joint Staff. It followed the broad outlines of the paper for Bush, arguing that the enemy was a ‘network’ that included states that support terrorism and that the Defence Department should seek to ‘convince or compel’ those states to cut their ties to terrorism.
 The Pentagon guidance document called for military commanders to assist other government agencies ‘as directed’ to ‘encourage populations dominated by terrorist organizations or their supporters to overthrow that domination’.
 That language was adopted because the campaign planning document was issued as ‘Strategic Guidance for the Defense Department’ on Oct. 3, 2001 — just three days after the Rumsfeld strategy paper had gone to the president.
 Bush had not approved the explicit aim of regime change in Iran, Syria and four other countries proposed by Rumsfeld. Thus Rumsfeld adopted the aggressive military plan targeting multiple regimes in the Middle East for regime change even though it was not White House policy.
 The Defence Department guidance document made it clear that U.S. military aims in regard to those states would go well beyond any ties to terrorism. The document said that the Defence Department would also seek to isolate and weaken those states and to ‘disrupt, damage or destroy’ their military capacities — not necessarily limited to WMD.
 The document included as a ’strategic objective’ a requirement to ‘prevent further attacks against the U.S. or U.S. interests’. That language, which extended the principle of preemption far beyond the issue of WMD, was so broad as to justify plans to use force against virtually any state that was not a client of the United States.
 The military leadership’s strong preference for focusing on states as enemies rather than on the threat from al Qaeda after 9/11 continued a pattern of behaviour going back to the Bill Clinton administration (1993-2001).
 After the bombing of two U.S. embassies in East Africa by al Qaeda operatives, State Department counter-terrorism official Michael Sheehan proposed supporting the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance in Afghanistan against bin Laden’s sponsor, the Taliban regime. However, senior U.S. military leaders ‘refused to consider it’, according to a 2004 account by Richard H. Shultz, Jr., a military specialist at Tufts University.
 A senior officer on the Joint Staff told State Department counter-terrorism director Sheehan he had heard terrorist strikes characterised more than once by colleagues as a ’small price to pay for being a superpower’.
 Inter Press Service
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President calls for expansion of cultural ties with Algeria
May 7, 2008

 President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Tuesday that Iranian and Algerian nations enjoy profound cultural relations.
 In a meeting with Algerian Minister of Culture, Khalida Toumi, he said the two countries cultural cooperation has been established on a correct and stable route.
 He reiterated that the two countries people share identical cultural and religious characteristics.
 There is no restriction for further expansion of cultural ties between the two countries, he said voicing Tehran's willingness to boost all-out ties with its brotherly country, Algeria.
 The Algerian minister, for her part, expressed interest of her country's leaders in bolstering bilateral relations with the Islamic Republic of Iran.
 Referring to the existing cultural and religious commonalties between the two nations, she said Algiers attaches special importance to its ties with Tehran.
 Ms Toumi, who has come to Iran to attend the Algerian Cultural Week, added that holding cultural week would help further promote bilateral ties between the two nations.
 Referring to her visits to the two ancient Iranian cities of Isfahan and Shiraz, she said during the trip she became familiar with the country's achievements in different fields.
 IRNA
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